Census Bureau Projection Shows 127 Million More Residents in Next 45 Years

The U.S. Census Bureau has released new population projections based on alternative scenarios for the rate of immigration. In the high immigration scenario (a net increase from 747,000 immigrants in 2012 to 1.6 million per year in 2060) the U.S. population would reach 442.4 million by 2060 (up 127 million from today’s 315 million). According to the Census Bureau press release, this high immigration rate would also speed up the advent of today’s white majority losing its majority status by 2041. By 2060, the minority population – today at 37 percent – would comprise 58.8 percent of the population.

A second, low-immigration scenario would also assume an increasing level of immigration, but one that would reach 824,000 per year in 2060. A third scenario is based on a constant level of net international migration of 725,000 residents. This last scenario results in a total population in 2060 of 392.7 million, i.e., 50 million fewer residents than in the high scenario. There is not much difference between the low and constant immigration scenarios – about 5 million fewer residents in 2060 in with constant net immigration.

The level of immigration is slated to become the major factor in the population rise and in the changing ethnic composition of the country. The Census Bureau press release states, “International migration is projected to surpass natural increase (births minus deaths) as the principal driver of U.S. population growth by the middle of this century…” It already is the primary driver of U.S population growth if the children born here to the immigrants are added to the net international migration.

The Census Bureau did not offer a net-zero immigration scenario that has been offered previously. Net-zero immigration means arriving immigrants equal that of residents leaving the United States to live abroad.

About Author


Jack, who joined FAIR’s National Board of Advisors in 2017, is a retired U.S. diplomat with consular experience. He has testified before the U.S. Congress, U.S. Civil Rights Commission, and U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform and has authored studies of immigration issues. His national and international print, TV, and talk radio experience is extensive (including in Spanish).


  1. avatar
    Mass Immigration Is Unsustainable on

    “The Census Bureau did not offer a net-zero immigration scenario that has been offered previously.”

    Because that’s the course most Americans would prefer when comparing the various population projections?

  2. avatar
    Mass Immigration Is Unsustainable on

    “This last scenario [constant level] results in a total population in 2060 of 392.7 million”

    I wish someone from the Census Bureau could speak to Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, etc. These guys haven’t a clue that the population would still rise considerably with zero increase to the current immigration level.

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  5. avatar

    The phonies at the Sierra Club used to be for restricting immigration to curb our population growth, but now they call that “the greening of hate”. They actually produced papers back in the 1980s that supported restrictions. A lot of us can remember when nations like China and India had populations of 400 to 500 million and everyone thought how awful, and it’s good we aren’t like that. Well, we are on the way.

    The Rockefeller Commission on population growth in the early 1970s said that there was no good reason for our population to increase and that a stable population would make our problems like pollution and urban sprawl easier to solve. Out population then? 205 million, 2/3 of our present population.

    When people babble on about the Statue of Liberty, the fact is our population in 1890 was about 65 million. And it may have said give me your poor, but it didn’t say we will let them go on welfare and food stamps, which didn’t exist then.

  6. avatar

    Who Cares if White, Purple, or Orange Ethnic Groups Comprise the Majority of Americans

    Overpopulation is overpopulation, no matter what ethnic color; albeit the current melting pot of ethnic groups in America [BTW, America current leads in ethnic group mixes compared to any other nation on earth] have a 1.7 birthrate, depopulating our country.

    The rest of the world should learn from CURRENT AMERICANS on environmental population control; instead of America encouraging OVERPOPULATION with lax immigration enforcements mitigating CURRENT POSITIVE depopulation. The earth is way over populated per almost all demographers.