Immigration’s Impact on the Country’s Future

The U.S. Census Bureau released, on February 13, an updated projection for the country’s population between now and 2060. Part of the projection reveals how the population in 2060 would change if the level of immigration were increased or decreased.

The projection shows that if immigration remains at the current level – more than a million new residents each year – there will be about 72 million more residents in 2060. If immigration were reduced to half its current level, the population increase would be reduced to about 44 million additional residents.

The projected populations include scenarios in which immigration is shut off entirely or increased by about 75 percent above the current level. The first of those – zero immigration – is not only unrealistic because no one is seriously proposing stopping all immigration – would result in a slight decrease in the country’s population by 2060, i.e., a drop of about 12 million residents. This projection shows that the Census Bureau estimates that over this period all of the nation’s population increase is due to immigration.

The Bureau’s projection of a major increase over current levels reflects proposals being advocated by business interests as well as open border advocates. That scenario would add about 111 million more residents than today and some 40 million more than if present immigration levels were maintained.

The population projections in this report have enormous implications for the future of the country. Obviously a larger population means increased consumption of natural resources and production of more waste and greenhouse emissions. Yet, most policymakers ignore the environmental impact of a rising population.

Open border advocates attack any suggestion that immigration be reduced – as recommended by the 1990s U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform – as racist and an attempt to maintain a white majority. That, however, is pure subterfuge. The goal of stabilizing the U.S. population is an inherently legitimate one that has nothing to do with the future racial or ethnic composition of the nation.

About Author


Jack, who joined FAIR’s National Board of Advisors in 2017, is a retired U.S. diplomat with consular experience. He has testified before the U.S. Congress, U.S. Civil Rights Commission, and U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform and has authored studies of immigration issues. His national and international print, TV, and talk radio experience is extensive (including in Spanish).

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